EUROPE - European real estate market turnovers: outlook 2023

According to Scenari Immobiliari, the robustness of the real estate markets in the main European countries, compared to the future economic scenario, which is expected to decline and is still fraught with uncertainty, is confirmed by the forecasts on the turnovers of the 5 leading nations (including Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom).

In the average of the 5 largest countries, growth in 2022 is estimated at 12.1 per cent compared to 2021; if the average turnover generated at the end of 2022 is extended to the 28 EU countries, an increase over the previous year of 9.9 per cent is estimated. This would be an important contribution to the growth of global turnover in value terms comes from the positive price change recorded this year, to which the rise in inflation in recent months has evidently contributed.

In the residential sector,house prices in the 5 most industrialised countries are expected to increase by an average of 4.5% at the end of the year, while the estimate for the following year is set at +6.5% on average per year. On the residential real estate transactions front, Italy, after the exceptional performance of 2021, is expected to close 2022 with a slight drop in trade of 5.3%, settling at 710 thousand purchases and sales. For 2023, a further decline is expected to remain below 6 percentage points and around 670 thousand trades.